Likhakanyo tsa nako e telele tsa 'maraka oa lifofane
Setsi sa liteko le pokello ea Airbus Boema-fofane ba Toulouse-Blagnac Fora. Lifoto tsa Airbus
Baetsi ba lifofane ba likhokahano ba phatlalalitse likhatiso tse latelang tsa likhakanyo tsa nako e telele tsa 'maraka oa maeto a sefofane. Ho ea ka likhakanyo tsa bona, lilemong tse mashome a mabeli tse tlang, 2018-2037, lipalangoang li tla eketseha ka makhetlo a 2,5, 'me lifofane li tla reka: ho ea ka Boeing - lifofane tse likete tse 42,7 ($ 6,35 trillion), le ho ea ka Airbus - likete tse 37,4. , moetsi oa Europe o sebetsana le likoloi tse nang le litulo tse fetang 100, le ea Amerika e nang le lifofane tse nyenyane. Embraer e hakanya tlhokahalo ea lifofane tsa libaka tse nang le matla a ho fihlela litulo tsa 150 ho 10,5 tse likete. diyuniti, le MFR ea turboprops ka likete tse 3,02. Bahlahlobisisi ba Boeing ba bolela esale pele hore ka lilemo tse mashome a mabeli palo ea lifofane e tla eketseha ho tloha ho 24,4 48,5 ea hona joale. ho fihla ho li-unit tse likete tse 8,8, 'me boholo ba' maraka oa lipalangoang tsa moea e tla ba lidolara tse libilione tse XNUMX.
Bohareng ba selemo, baetsi ba lifofane tsa puisano ba ile ba hatisa likhatiso tse tloaelehileng tsa ponelopele ea nako e telele bakeng sa 'maraka oa lipalangoang tsa moea. Thuto ea Boeing e bitsoa Current Market Outlook - CMO (Hona joale Market Outlook) le Airbus Global Market Forecast - GMF (World Market Forecast). Tlhahlobong ea eona, moetsi oa Europe o sebetsana le lifofane tse nang le litulo tse fetang 100, athe moetsi oa Amerika o sebetsana le lifofane tsa libaka tse nang le litulo tse 90. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, likhakanyo tse lokiselitsoeng ke Bombardier, Embraer le ATR li lebisa tlhokomelo ho li-jets tsa libaka, tseo e leng taba ea thahasello ea tlhahiso ea tsona.
Likhakanyong tse fapaneng, bahlahlobisisi ba mebaraka ba hakanya: palo ea lipalangoang tsa moea le nts'etsopele ea likepe ke libaka tsa lefats'e le maemo a lichelete bakeng sa ts'ebetso ea 'maraka oa lipalangoang tsa moea lilemong tse mashome a mabeli tse tlang 2018-2037. Tokisetso ea liphatlalatso tsa morao-rao tse boletsoeng esale pele e ne e etelletsoe pele ke tlhahlobo e tebileng ea sephethephethe litseleng tse phetheselang ka ho fetesisa le liphetoho tse ngata tse entsoeng ho likepe, tse nang le bajari ba kholo ka ho fetisisa, hammoho le litšenyehelo tsa ts'ebetso ea likarolo tsa litsela ka bomong. 'maraka oa maeto a sefofane. Ho bolela esale pele ha ho sebelisoe feela ke batsamaisi ba lifofane le baetsi ba lifofane ba puisano, empa hape le ke bo-ralibanka, bahlahlobisisi ba 'maraka oa lifofane le litsamaiso tse amehang tsa mmuso.
Polelo ea sephethephethe sa lifofane
Bahlahlobisisi ba 'maraka oa lifofane, ba lokiselitseng litokollo tsa morao-rao tsa likhakanyo tsa nako e telele, ba tsoetse pele ho tloha tabeng ea hore kholo ea selemo le selemo ea kholo ea moruo ea GDP ea lefats'e (sehlahisoa sa lehae) e tla ba 2,8%. Linaha sebakeng sena: Asia-Pacific - 3,9%, Bochabela bo Hare - 3,5%, Afrika - 3,3% le Amerika Boroa - 3,0% e tla tlaleha matla a phahameng ka ho fetisisa a selemo le selemo a moruo oa bona, 'me ka tlase ho karolelano ea lefatše lohle: Europe - 1,7, 2 %, Amerika Leboea - 2% le Russia le Asia Bohareng - 4,7%. Nts'etsopele ea moruo e tla fana ka keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea sephethephethe sa bapalami maemong a XNUMX%. Kholo ea lipalangoang, ho feta moruo, e tla ba haholo-holo ka lebaka la: ho lokoloha ha mebaraka le katoloso e tsoelang pele ea marang-rang a likhokahano, litheko tse tlase tsa litekete, hammoho le phello e ntle ea nts'etsopele ea khoebo ea lefats'e le bohahlauli ba machabeng. Lekhetlo la pele ka mor'a lilemo tse ngata, re bona kholo ea moruo libakeng tsohle tsa lefats'e e hlahisa likhothatso tse eketsehileng bakeng sa maeto a lifofane lefatšeng ka bophara. "Re bona mekhoa e matla ea khōlo eseng feela limmarakeng tse ntseng li hōla Chaena le India, empa hape le limmarakeng tse hōlileng tsebong tsa Europe le Amerika Leboea," ho boletse Motlatsi oa Motlatsi oa Boeing oa Marketing Randy Tinseth tlhalosong ea ponelopele.
Mokhanni ea ka sehloohong bakeng sa nts'etsopele ea maeto a sefofane e tla ba kholo ea baahi le keketseho ea butle-butle ea batho ba bohareng (ke hore batho ba fumanang chelete ho tloha ho 10 ho ea ho lidolara tse 100 ka letsatsi, lichelete tsena li lokisoa bakeng sa matla a ho reka a lichelete tsa motho ka mong). Bahlahlobisisi ba Airbus ba balile hore nakong ea lilemo tse mashome a mabeli palo ea baahi ba lefats'e e tla eketseha ka 16% (ho tloha ho 7,75 ho ea ho 9,01 limilione tse likete), 'me sehlopha se bohareng ka hoo e ka bang 69% (ho tloha ho 2,98 ho ea ho 5,05 limilione tse likete). E kholo ka ho fetisisa, keketseho e habeli ea palo ea baahi ba sehlopha se bohareng e tla tlalehoa Asia (ho tloha ho batho ba limilione tse likete tse 1,41 ho ea ho 2,81), le matla a maholo ka ho fetisisa Afrika (ho tloha ho 220 ho ea ho limilione tse 530). Limmarakeng tse kholo tsa Europe le Amerika Leboea, boholo bo lekanyelitsoeng ba sehlopha sa bohareng bo ke ke ba fetoha haholo 'me bo tla lula bo le boemong ba limilione tse 450-480 (Europe) le limilione tse 260 (Amerika Leboea), ka ho latellana. Ho lokela ho hlokomeloa hore sehlopha sa bohareng hajoale se etsa 38% ea baahi ba lefats'e, 'me ka lilemo tse mashome a mabeli kabelo ea eona e tla eketseha ho 56%. Matla a susumetsang nts'etsopele ea maeto a sefofane e tla ba kholo e ntseng e tsoela pele ea litoropo le kholo ea leruo limmarakeng tse ntseng li hlaha tse nang le bokhoni bo boholo (ho kenyeletsoa: India, China, Amerika Boroa, Europe Bohareng le Russia). Ka kakaretso ea batho ba limilione tse likete tse 6,7 libakeng tsena, maeto a sefofane a tla hola ka sekhahla sa 5,7% ka selemo, 'me palo ea batho ba lakatsang ho tsamaea ka sefofane e tla imena hararo. Lilemong tse 'maloa tse tlang,' maraka oa lehae oa lifofane oa China o tla fetoha o moholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, limmarakeng tse tsoetseng pele (ho kenyeletsa Amerika Leboea, Europe Bophirimela, Japane, Singapore, Korea Boroa le Australia) tse nang le baahi ba fetang limilione tse sekete, sephethephethe se tla hōla ka tekanyo ea 3,1%. Tlhokahalo ea lipalangoang tsa moea e tla lebisa ntlafatsong ea boema-fofane, ho kenyeletsoa libaka tsa phetisetso tse haufi le libaka tsa litoropo (li hlahisa bapalami ba fetang 10 letsatsi le letsatsi litseleng tse tsamaeang nako e telele). Ka 2037, karolo ea bobeli ho tse tharo ea baahi ba lefats'e e tla lula metseng e meholo, 'me palo ea metse e meholo e tla eketseha ho tloha ho 64 ho ea ho 210 (ka 2027) le 328 (ka 2037).
Libaka tse ntseng li tsoela pele ka matla li tla ba: Amerika Boroa, sebaka sa Asia-Pacific le Middle East, se tla hōla ka karolelano ea selemo le selemo ea 5-5,5%, le Afrika - 6%. Limmarakeng tse peli tse kholo tsa Europe le Amerika Leboea, kholo e tla ba e itekanetseng ho 3,1% le 3,8%, ka ho latellana. Kaha limmaraka tsena li tla hola ka lebelo le tlase ho feta karolelano ea lefats'e (4,7%), karolo ea bona ea sephethephethe sa lefats'e e tla fokotseha butle-butle. Ka 1990, karolo e kopantsoeng ea 'maraka oa Amerika le Europe e ne e le 72%, ka 2010 - 55%, lilemo tse leshome le metso e mehlano tse fetileng - 49%, ka lilemo tse mashome a mabeli kabelo ena e tla fokotseha ho 37%. Leha ho le joalo, sena ha se phello ea ho tlala ha maemo a phahameng feela.
Matla a selemo le selemo a lipalangoang tsa moea ka liphesente tse 'maloa a tla lebisa tabeng ea hore ka lilemo tse 20 palo ea bapalami e tla hōla ho tloha ho 4,1 ho ea ho limilione tse likete tse 10, le tlhahiso ea lipalangoang ho tloha ho 7,6 trillion pkm (pass.-km) ho ea ho 19 trillion. pkm. . Boeing e hakanya hore ka 2037 libaka tse nang le sephethephethe se seholo e tla ba litsela tsa malapeng Chaena (2,4 trillion pkm), Amerika Leboea (2,0 trillion pkm), Europe le Asia Boroa-bochabela, hammoho le likhokahano ho tloha Europe ho ea Amerika Leboea (0,9 trillion pkm). . ) le Bochabela bo Hare. Karolo ea 'maraka ea Asia lefatšeng hona joale ke 33%,' me ka lilemo tse mashome a mabeli e tla fihla ho 40%. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, 'maraka oa Europe o tla oa ho tloha ho 25% ho ea ho 21%, le' maraka oa Amerika Leboea ho tloha 21% ho ea ho 16%. 'Maraka oa Amerika Boroa o tla lula o sa fetohe ka karolo ea 5%, Russia le Asia Bohareng - 4% le Afrika - 3%.
